On March 28, 2022, Ukraine had been under siege by Russia for weeks with no end in sight. Photographs circled the world showing blood in the streets and the bodies of deceased Ukrainians. Civilian journalists have not been immune to the Russian military’s inhumane attacks as evidenced by the deaths of 12 journalists so far. But on this day, rumors of a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire talks reached its highest level yet. Ukraine had set a ceasefire goal on March 29, according to Reuters. Talks like these had been going on since the war started, but not with a deadline. With the hope of a ceasefire, the crypto market looked ready for a rebound.
The day before the deadline Bitcoin was in the green and topped at ~$48,000 per coinmarketcap.
In fact, Bitcoin had been in the green for a week beginning on March 21st. A week of green candles hadn’t happened since July 20 to 29, 2021 when bitcoin rose from $29,500 to $42,300, per Kucoin’s charts. It was the 2021 crypto euphoria all over again! However, this new euphoria quickly faded by the day of the ceasefire deadline, March 29, as seen by the red candles on the second chart. If you are new to cryptocurrency, you might be surprised that the day of the ceasefire talks led to red candles. Well…crypto experts will say this is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Meaning, everything peaks leading up to a big news day or deadline and dumps on the news day or deadline. So, how would a ceasefire be good for Altcoin Season?
Some have been impatiently waiting for altcoins (cryptos besides Bitcoin) to exponentially increase in value for about a year now a.k.a. Altcoin season. Unfortunately, it still hasn’t happened yet. However, If this is how bitcoin reacts to a ceasefire rumor, imagine IF it was the real deal. A Bitcoin pump would happen and after the pump, the altcoins would follow with their own pump. After Bitcoin rebounded to a peak of $48,000 on March 28, we saw altcoins reach their peak a few days later. As seen on coinmarketcap, altcoins rebounded in response to the ceasefire rumors after weeks on the downtrend. Some altcoins continued on an uptrend after bitcoin started dumping. Dogecoin reached $0.173 cents on April 5, Solana $142 on April 2, Ethereum $3,550 on April 3, and Terra $119 on April 5.
Dogecoin reached $0.173 cents on April 5
Solana reached $142 on April 2
Ethereum reached $3,550 on April 3
Terra reached $119 on April 5
This pattern is similar to the bull run in April to May 2021 when Bitcoin rose to $64,840 on April 13. Dogecoin peaked days later at $0.74 cents on May 7, Solana went to $56 on May 17 and Ethereum peaked to $4,168 on May 10. In the future, when news of an actual ceasefire begins again, it will all seem like deja vu. As expected, Bitcoin will undoubtedly rise and days later, we can expect the altcoins to follow Bitcoin’s lead and kick off the Altcoin Season that we’ve all been waiting for!